The Capitol View – Energy discussion kicks off 2025 series

The opening line of The Martin Group’s latest iteration of its annual Capitol View series was direct and definitive.

“Let me be clear—we all support a clean energy transition,” stated Gavin Donohue, President and CEO of Independent Power Producers of New York, Inc. (IPPNY).

This set the table for the series’ first panel discussion, entitled, “New York’s Energy Future,” held on Wednesday, March 19 inside Albany’s Bull Moose Club. The Martin Group hosted three members of the Climate Action Council who voted against the New York State Scoping Plan, which was adopted just over two years ago. The Scoping Plan represents the state’s commitment to reducing New York’s greenhouse gas emissions by 85% by 2045.

However, panelists Donna DeCarolis, President of National Fuel; Dennis Elsenbeck, Head of Energy and Sustainability at Phillips Lytle LLP; and Gavin Donohue, do not view this goal as realistic or affordable for New York consumers.

Moderator Dan Clark, a Capitol Bureau journalist, initiated the discussion by referencing the significant date of December 19, 2022—the day the Climate Action Council voted on the Scoping Plan. Throughout the morning’s engaging dialogue, panelists expressed concerns about the Scoping Plan; addressed how it could impact residents, businesses, and the state’s economy; and spent a considerable amount of time discussing two central elements addressed by the plan: energy affordability and reliability.

Affordability

In a joint letter, Gavin Donohue and Donna DeCarolis requested a per-ratepayer analysis to determine how the Scoping Plan’s policies would affect gas delivery rates. However, they did not receive a response. Despite numerous studies and cost estimates, energy providers have not received any projections regarding potential customer fee increases.

DeCarolis emphasized that electrifying the state is not an easy task. Currently, electricity costs five times more than natural gas, making it a significant economic consideration for consumers.

Donohue highlighted the economic consequences of removing natural gas power plants from New York. These plants contribute over $1.5 billion in property taxes statewide. As he pointed out, “Utilities are the tax engine of the state.” If the state proceeds with shutting down natural gas power plants, lawmakers will need to replace the millions of dollars in revenue lost across various regions.

Reliability

If New York fully electrifies its utilities, electric demand is expected to rise by 65-80%. Currently, 90% of New York City relies on oil and gas. The state’s energy infrastructure is outdated. Although the state has been working on modernizing gas assets, it requires updated transmission and distribution systems to meet existing energy needs, let alone those outlined in the Scoping Plan.

DeCarolis explained her no vote on the Scoping Plan by noting that residents and businesses in Western New York—where temperatures are, on average, 50% lower than in the rest of the state—depend heavily on natural gas for heating. She referenced Winter Storm Elliott, during which 150,000 electricity customers lost power, while only 13 natural gas customers experienced outages.

Throughout the session, panelists voiced concerns regarding energy reliability. They noted that the Scoping Plan suggests “reliability support” but lacks details on how to ensure it. Donohue remarked that the plan does not provide substantive arguments for maintaining reliability.

Sustainability

As a practicing engineer, Dennis Elsenbeck is tasked with understanding the impact of the evolving energy space. His main responsibility is examining the intersection of economic impact and environmental sustainability. During the panel discussion, Elsenbeck noted that if the state completely electrified utilities, electric demand would increase by 65-80%. In his words, “65-80% – we’d light up every transmission feeder in the City of Buffalo!”

This isn’t ideal. Complete electrification of the state’s utilities causes concerns for Elsenbeck specifically because there isn’t an electric transition group to ensure the electric distribution and transmission systems are prepared to take on this staggering amount of energy output.

From DeCarolis’s perspective, National Fuel is the largest natural gas utility provider, covering 11 counties across Western New York. Donohue raised a critical question during the event: How can New York remove oil and gas from its utility services while keeping the lights on? Furthermore, how will the state transmit renewable energy sources into homes once identified? These pressing questions were at the forefront of the discussion.

Overall, our panelists engaged in a lively conversation about the future of energy in the state and shared their aspirations for its direction. As leaders in the energy industry, they provided expert insights on how New York can advance while keeping costs manageable for consumers and ensuring their comfort during the state’s cold winter months.

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